Windows 8 : Titanic Consequences

I wrote an article back in 2012 simply titled: Windows 8: A New Beginning or the Beginning of the End... in which I made a bold prediction that Windows 8 could single-handedly sink the entire desktop computer industry. Now, I'll admit some of what I wrote was a bit sensationalist as the desktop computer industry was already in somewhat of a free-fall (arguably, caused by MS slow update cycles and reluctance to innovate), but the theory behind the article was sound and true. Redmond made a huge gamble on Windows 8, dragging their partners helplessly along for the ride, without considering the complete ramifications of what a failure could mean. 

  Yesterday, both Garner and IDC release some rather gloomy numbers for first quarter PC shipments--shipments were down 14% (the lowest drop in history), and the research firm IDC dropped the blame for these numbers squarely on Redmond's doorstep, actually quoting a statement I made almost a year ago calling it, "The Perfect Storm". While 14% may not seem like a huge number to some people, it is an absolutely frightening number to an entire industry, mind you, the 14% downturn is the number of PC's shipped to retailers and partners, and it's a comparison to what an all ready ailing market was doing just last year. These are not sales numbers, but it doesn’t take a genius to know if your shipping less you selling a whole lot less. 

  The short-sited release of Windows 8 did not take into account that Microsoft's partners: Dell, HP, Acer, Lenovo, etc...were already suffering from quarter after quarter of stagnant and flat sales. Flat sales mean revenue loss, a drop in sale, well that means, catastrophe in an industry that already has razor thin margins. Point blank, Microsoft is suffocating its partners to death, and that is not an exaggeration! Michael Dell, in recent months, has been trying to reverse the course of his company by attempting the impossible--taking a struggling public company and returning them back to private company status, spending his own money in that process. 

  Michael Dell is smart. He has long understood the dangers of having his company's success or failure being tied solely to one partner, consequently Dell has attempted numerous times at incorporating new OS partners to run their hardware (Dell has sold Linux laptops, and tried unsuccessfully to sell Steve Jobs on a limited Apple, Dell partnership), but none of these attempts have been successful. Michael Dell also understands the tough changes that has to be made will be incredibly difficult while the company is publicly traded, but the concept of taking a public company back to a private company is like trying to make a river change course, it's a long shot to say the least. The bigger problem for all of Microsoft partners is the world has gone mobile, and not any of these companies are major players in that market. 

  The mobile Market, right now, is really a two horse race between Samsung and Apple. Consequently, Microsoft's partners have hitched themselves, once again, to Microsoft’s engine to carry them into the future on the mobile front; a decision that has these companies bleeding in their primary market (desktop) and their secondary market (mobile), as the adoption rate for Windows 8 in the mobile/tablet front has also been poor. So, where does that leave the Microsoft OEM Partners? Unfortunately, it doesn't look good long term for any of these companies, except for maybe Lenovo (a Chinese company), which has shown some ability to be adaptable. While Acer and others have released Android tablets, it's been pretty obvious that Apple is the major player in the tablet game with about 70% market share, and the other OEM's are simply cannibalizing each other and having very little affect on Apple’s dominance. HP, of course, does have other revenue streams that are not tied directly to Microsoft, but they are tied indirectly to overall PC sales. Peripherals are not immune to winds of change; in fact HP will soon have to find its “new self” as the market rushes quickly into the post-apocalyptic-pc era.

Is Microsoft to blame for all of this? The answer, of course, is no. But, Windows 8 is the Titanic or the iceberg in this real life allegory—and although they (Microsoft) may have enough lifeboats (money) to save themselves their partners are indeed on a sinking ship hoping Captain Ballmer is not related to Captain Edward Smith. Personally, I believe that Ballmer has a second career as an author in his future—“How to Destroy a Mega Corp and Sink an Entire Industry for Dummies”. It sounds like a best seller to me. 

Corey Spearman

How one application has changed my view of Windows 8

Windows 8, a conundrum wrapped inside of a paradox, the Jekyll and Hyde of OS's, the mighty, but slightly deranged savior of Redmond. Yes it is all these things and some would say some less attractive adjectives could be used also. But what if I told you that the drunk, obusive  party crasher formerly known as Metro could be put in shackles and only seen when called. Leaving us alone with the new slick, sexy desktop that is faster and seemingly lighter than Win 7. Could this change your mind? Well, it did for me.

Stardock's Start 8 has given the power back to people. Windows 8 has some great qualities, but those qualities were hidden underneath a drunk, obnoxious, and constantly intruding interface. Like a terrible roommate who ignores the rules and and continually interrupts your date with the head cheerleader (yeah right, dream on buddy...) Metro would repeatedly shows up unannounced and rudely.  Think of Start 8 as a return to some normalcy. Giving you the ability to access Metro when you want to, or when you run a Metro app. It doesn't solve all of the usability issues with Win 8. But for me it makes  it easier to see all of the good stuff that Redmond has packed under the hood in desktop mode. Little things like a customizable start menu, and booting directly to desktop has made a huge difference.  Now when I want to see Metro I click on it instead of the perplexedly strange reversed implementation that Redmond gave us.  

How much better do I feel about Windows 8? Well, good enough to upgrade my Win 7 Notebook that my daughter uses for school. Before I didn't want to because it would require a training session which honestly, screw that, simply not worth it. Now, I don't have to explain the desktop's rude schizo neighbor - things are faster and overall better. I have a feeling we will see a form of this in Windows 9 after Microsoft figures out you can't just insert a bully into people's lives and ask that they deal with (at least provide some counseling). Yes their are some hacks that a trained professional could perform that will disable Metro, but that alone does not fix the usability issue. This application gives you back familiarity which most users will appreciate. One slight issue Start 8 is still in beta and I did run into some glitchiness, but nothing to severe, and the pros definitely outweigh the cons. Also Start 8 is shareware, but $4.99 (after 14 day trial) for a piece of sanity is pretty cheap. You can check out Start 8 here along with some user reviews.

P.S. You're Welcome....

Windows 8: A new beginning or the beginning of the end...

....And In This Corner

  Well, the day is finally here. The mainstream world gets it hands on Microsoft's newest creation Windows 8. For some of us like myself we have been testing and running Windows 8 for months, and we know intimately that this version of Windows may be the most polarizing upgrade of all  time. There is simply no simple conclusion to what Microsoft has done. Opinions of this operating system has already divided us like the Presidential race that's happening at the same time. The middle ground has been blurred - the conclusion angry pitch fork carrying villagers on one side and fan boys and apologists on the other, but regardless of what you think. This is what we know.

Ballmer and Redmond Have Gone All In...

  Microsoft has bet it all on 8, tablets, desktops, mobile, and the Xbox have all  been metro-ized and have left no options for retreat. That's right, the entire fate of civilization has come down to color coded tiles and a touchy - feely UI. Although I personally appreciate bold moves and brave decisions  I still couldn't help but thinking after I first tested this interface that someone, somewhere had completely lost it and their would some hell to pay. From a purely technology standpoint, Windows 8 represents a radical shift in paradigm for desktop users mainly because it was simply not built for the desktop. Redmond, in it's attempt unify their product has done the big no no - a brute force hack of the user.

Windows 8: An Experiment in Social Hacking

"Change comes gradually or it comes suddenly, but sudden change will be met with furious resistance."

You see, for most us change is something we just don't like to do. We are in essence walking, talking computers running routines and sub routines that we call habits. Those habits become our applications that run our lives, and when their is attempt to rewrite our programming is is perceived has a viral attack or a hack, and our defense system now goes on the offense. Take me for an example. A computer professional with over 30 years experience in building, testing, and using all variants of computer technology. I currently work in the field and would consider myself a progressive technologists. Now because I think so highly of myself ,of course, I don't like to feel stupid. Well, 8 made me feel stupid, which is not easy. I started on computers before there was a GUI! Just code and more code. I have seen every variant of every known OS in the history of the world and Windows 8 dares to defy my Godlike status and incredible ego. Right or wrong, I have expectation as a user not to be bullied or pushed into routines that simply don't work for me and this is where Redmond has made their biggest mistakes.

Break the Laws of Usability at Your Own Peril

"Yes, there are laws and rules and breaking those laws have a penalty. But if you are going to break an existing law you had better make sure that your way is better."

This is precisely what Microsoft did not do. They did not create a better way, they just simply abandoned "the way" kidnapping the user and dragging them down a path that is confusing and unintuitive. Here is some examples of bad tragic usability errors.

1. Sorry Microsoft on the desktop we still use a mouse and keyboard. Creating a desktop paradigm based on a tablet format and function simply sucks. Do I have to get technical here? It's just bad on top of more bad.
2. Did I tell you I wanted to be able to touch my desktop or laptop? Redmond has a created a solution looking for a problem. Most all usability studies that I have read have come to the same conclusion. Touch interfaces need to be installed in certain form factors and desktops are simply not one of them. Repetitiously reaching out to touch a desktop or laptop can lead to a condition nicknamed "elephant arm". This is where the sitting postion and constant reaching of the arm would cause the arm to tire and strain. Standing touch interface are meant for short term use such as ATM's or other quick use devices. On the flip-side of this, the laptop form factor creates another dilemma having a keyboard, touchpad, and a touch interface creates a dilemma of choice. The mind has to process first which how to input the information before it does it. The repetition of this dilemma will lead to frustration for the user and ultimately abandonment of options. Implementing a function that will ultimately be abandoned is an expensive gimmick or trick, not a viable solution. Plus, computers are shared devices. Don't touch my screen!!!
3. Onscreen hotspots and triggers need to be clearly defined and not hidden like some sort of lost treasure that I need a map to find. Windows 8 sufferers from excessive mouse travel and lost functions syndrome. Yes, I just made that up to define something that should never exist in the first place. Who told Microsoft that hiding things were cool. I do not want to feel satisfaction because I found something that should have plainly labeled  and unhidden in the first place. I'm sorry but as I get older my since of adventure and wonder has been placed with the ultimate satisfaction of expectation. I expect things to be where they are suppose to be and I hate scavenger hunts.
4.Being a Duo is a recipe for disaster unless your Hall & Oates. Look I'm sorry the dual desktop environment could quite possibly be the most schizo idea ever. "Let's give everyone's computer a split personalty." Whatever drugs produced these results should be adopted by the military and used as a weapon of mass confusion. This to me is the the biggest usability no no. If someone told me they were going to attempt this I think I would have no problem in saying they were crazy, but using Win 8 and the constant switching between Metro and classic makes me feel crazy. This reason alone is why I am refusing to update my other PC's and the people that trust me to Win 8 simply, I don't won't the headache or responsibility of the training and support.  
5. If you make my computer uncomfortable, I won't use it. Although that does not apply for me because I will not abandon my computer but I will abandon you. As I am a Mac user I have options, and so do other users. In fact, the desktop is already under siege by the mobile market which includes tablets phones and other hybrid devices. Although that sounds like Microsoft has gambled correctly, in actuality they haven't. Mobile interfaces and desktop interfaces are simply not the same and forcing one to fit into another represents really bad judgement! Judgement that may have short and long term ramifications. To understand this MS need only to look in their own backyard. Less than 3 years ago Internet Explorer had a 90% market share, but because of MS's persistance in going against the grain, and not in a positive way, that share has eroded to below 40%. Remember the original tablets, put out years ago by Microsoft and it's partners. Well, Microsoft used the exact same tactics of trying to force a modified desktop interface into a tablet form factor. It didn't work and tablets were widely looked at as a failure until Apple rescued the market in 2010 with the iPad. Microsoft's failures in the smart phone sector has been widely attributed to their inflexibility, stubbornness, and failure or audacity to recognize change. But more closer to the point once again Microsoft attempted to shrink down their desktop OS and fit it into a phone instead of understanding the inherited diference. If Microsoft needs to further understand the speed at which things can happen, go north and talk to RIM. Remember Palm?

The price of failure is high... 

This is not Vista. Market has changed, conditions have changed, the economy has changed and predators are everywhere. Microsoft is under siege in every front of it's business and the perfect storm of competition, economy and failure could cause a disaster that would affect the entire PC industry. PC sales have been on the decline now for 6 years. MIcrosoft has created a condition of dependency with their OEM partners - their fate is tied for better or worse to Microsoft. Once profitable companies like Intel are now reporting losses for the first time. Intel who was once the king of chips is getting smothered by the ARM based mobile markets. All in all it was really bad time for MS to have a misstep in direction. Win 8 is not the real problem, but rather Redmond believing their own hype and refusing to listen to early reports of discontent with their flagship product. This was a really bad time for Microsoft to get all "radical" on us and not be able to back it up in execution. Look Win 8 will sell, but I guarantee you MS will begin to bleed in all of it market sectors because of it. Even worse, it still seems like the old guys just don't get it. Either one of two things happened here. Either Win 8 is a product of old guys trying to hard to be cool, or the old guys stepped side and let the young inexperienced free radical do what he wanted. Either way ,at least in my book, I don't see any way that MS will win this round.